4 states of the market

Having been trading since 2014, I have noticed a recognizable pattern in market situations in both Bitcoin and altcoins. There are 4 following states. The low volume and high volume states alternate between one another. The first two are usually associated with sideways market and the last two refer to market trends.

  • Low volume, price before uptrend/downtrend breakout
  • Common for markets nearing the all-time lows. The lower the market goes, the easier it is to bump it with smaller amounts of capital. The higher it goes, the easier it is to crash it. If low volume happens between high volume cycles, it usually follows the volatility pattern and happens much sooner than in “cold” markets. With rising capitalization, the probability of continuous upward trends decreases proportionally, because the amount of capital required to sustain such trend raises exponentially.

  • High volume, price quickly rising/falling
  • These two states are called trends and are easily identifiable by the emotions of traders and holders. Rising euphoria means market is at least half way through it’s rise before most players exit. Desperation means the market is at least half way through the fall before recovery.

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