This excerpt has been taken from Marc’s video comments in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U4W7OS8-74, watch the whole video for more context and information.
“[…]In investing to estimate how high a bubble can go, you look at the past. For example gold went from $21 to $800 in 70’s, so times 40, ofcourse the price had been fixed for 50 years before that so the bull was likely stronger than any other time. From 2000 till 2011 it went up from $250 to $1900, times 8, that is not in the neighborhood of last bubble so odds are it will go up more. The same you can do with stocks or bonds. Bonds for example went up the past 30 years like never before in history (interest rates on 10 year bonds collapsed from 15% to 1% from 1980 till 2015, never happened since 1600) so very likely it will not go up any more and will correct strongly for decades.
Bitcoin has gone up parabolicly in 2011 in couple of months from $1 to $32 (x32), in 2013 suddenly from $15 to $255 (x16) and shortly after rapidly from $130 to $1150 (x8). Counting from the previous ATH it went in 2011 from $1 to $32 = (x32), then from $32 to $255 (x8) and then from $255 to $1150 (x4).
You see a downward trend, it multiplies less and less, logical since marketcap goes up more and more so it becomes harder to rise, need more and more capital. In 2011 when it went from $10 million to $100 million it did x32, in 2013 when it went from $100 to $1 billion it did only half (x16), and only 1/4th (x8) if you count from previous ATH. Shortly after it went from $1 to $10 billion and the power of the bull again halved to x8 and x4.
Since then we recovered from $160 to now $800, bringing the market cap back to $10+ billion so if we get a new bubble the power of it will likely be cut in half again compared to previous bubble so that will be x4 counting from whatever price we shoot off from and x2 from previous ATH.
So counting from $1150 x2 = $2300 high chance, x3 = $3450 maybe, x4 = $4600 unlikely and if it does happen, get rid of your last small exposure that you still have as odds are very high you will be able to buy back considerably cheaper.”